Scottish construction firms regain lost ground following Brexit vote

Kier construction stockExpectations across the Scottish construction sector are now showing signs of regaining the ground lost post the EU vote with growth forecast in workloads, employment and profit, according to new data published today.

Following a noticeable dip around the time of the EU referendum, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Construction Market Survey, Q4 2016, expects output growth over the year to strengthen, with workloads expectations for Scotland improving to post a reading of +27% (following +7% in Q3).

Alongside this, employment expectations remained firm, with 20% more respondents anticipating a rise in construction sector employment over the next year.

The latest results point to modest growth across the Scottish construction sector in the final quarter of 2016, with 7% more respondents reporting an increase in total workloads. However, while the data is broadly positive, the anecdotal comments left by chartered surveyors do continue to highlight uncertainty surrounding the departure from the EU to be dampening investment and activity.



During Q4, output increased in most sub sectors except public non-housing, with the strongest quarterly rise in workloads reported in the private industrial sector. 23% more respondents cited an increase in private industrial workloads (rather than a decrease). A rise in workloads was also reported in the private commercial and private housing sectors across Scotland.

Over the next twelve months, respondents continue to expect the road and rail sub categories of infrastructure to post the most significant increases in construction output at the UK national level. Regionally, expectations for growth in railway output lead the way in London, the North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, Wales and the West Midlands. Meanwhile, expectations for growth in road construction activity come out on top in all other areas of the UK.

Stephen Daniels MRICS, MB Langmuir & Hay (UK) Ltd, Glasgow, said: “There is a competitive market operating on tight margins in Scotland, and labour shortages are impacting on projects leading to delays.”

Skill shortages continue to be a key impediment to growth in the sector, although they have eased in five consecutive reports. Interestingly, however, the one area that remains a particular concern is the shortage of quantity surveyors with 50% of Scottish respondents highlighting a gap.



Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, added: “The latest results suggest that the construction sector has shrugged off concerns about the effect of Brexit with key workload indicators remaining firm around the country. Indeed, feedback regarding the outlook over the next twelve months is now rosier than it was back in the autumn with more building anticipated as 2017 unfolds.

“That said, there remains some unease about access to skilled labour in the emerging new world and financial constraints still remain a major challenge for many businesses. And significantly, we are being told that a shortage of quantity surveyors is impacting on the development process at the present time.”

The Scottish Building Federation said in December that confidence among construction employers north of the Border held steady at +2 in the last three months of 2016. This marked the second quarter in a row when the overall confidence of the industry was rated positive after a slump to -19 right after the Brexit vote.


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