Commercial property investment ‘resilient’ in uncertain times

The Atria building in Edinburgh
The Atria building in Edinburgh

Property consultancy Knight Frank has said that investment levels in Scottish commercial property remained resilient in 2016 despite an “unpredictable” year, while a separate report has suggested that interest has failed to pick up despite an increase in occupier demand.

New figures released by Knight Frank revealed that investors spent £1.78 billion across all sectors last year. This was a drop of 12% on 2015’s £2.01bn, but remained higher than the 10-year average of £1.72bn.

Edinburgh registered a “particularly strong” year, with £1.190bn transacted across all sectors – an increase of 92.5% and 138% on last year and the decade average, respectively.



Glasgow, meanwhile, saw a more “muted” 12 months, with transaction volumes at £280 million, down 59% on last year and 43 per cent on the ten-year average.

Aberdeen witnessed a “huge drop” in transaction volumes over the last two years, according to Knight Frank, from over £600m in 2014, down to £111m in 2015 and only £55m last year. This is measured against a 10 year average of £159m.

Alasdair Steele, head of Scotland commercial at Knight Frank, said: “Overall, the Scottish commercial property market remained resilient, despite an unstable 12 months. Edinburgh has seen a raft of new entrants, proving particularly popular with investors from Europe and further afield – a trend we’d expect to carry on in 2017.

“The low oil price has continued to take its toll in the North East, with few deals going through in 2016. However, with crude prices making a recovery, albeit still well short of 2014’s highs, conditions could improve in the year ahead. The industrial market also had a quiet year, but we’d expect some of the new generation of warehouses to do well in the next 12 months, as they prove increasingly attractive by offering yield and security of income.



“Across the country, political uncertainty has influenced investment levels over the last year. However, there’s a general feeling beginning to emerge that Scotland offers good value and strong fundamentals – an attractive proposition for investors seeking solid returns at an especially turbulent time. We’d hope to see that reflected in transaction volumes picking up in 2017, provided the political climate remains stable.”

Meanwhile, a survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) found that both domestic and foreign investment inquiries stayed in negative territory in the last quarter despite a gentle rise in occupier demand.

Despite some concern surrounding potential relocation of companies based in the UK, the Q4 RICS UK Commercial Market Survey 2016 revealed that demand from the occupiers was up in Scotland, with the office and industrial areas of the market seeing an increase during Q4 2016.

The retail market failed to see any growth in demand, with a net balance of 14% more chartered surveyors reporting a fall in demand for retail space during the last quarter. Overall, near term rent expectations turned modestly positive across Scotland for the first time in since the start of the year.



Interest from potential investors also failed to pick up in Scotland, with both domestic and foreign investment enquiries remaining in negative territory during the last three months of 2016. At the same time, the supply of property for investment purposes fell across all sectors (office, industrial and retail) during Q4.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “The results for the Q4 survey suggest that the commercial property market in Scotland has failed to attract investor interest despite an increase in occupier demand for commercial property in the last quarter. This may be due, in part, to the prospects for the economy and political situation more generally.

“Meanwhile the results for the occupier market across the UK highlight the resilience of the economy in the wake of the vote to leave the EU but also clearly demonstrate the demand for large warehouses to support the development of the distribution industry as consumers increasing go online to make their purchases.”


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