Draft infrastructure strategy sets out £30bn capital spending to 2030

Published alongside the draft Budget 2026-27 and Scottish Spending Review, the draft Infrastructure Strategy sets out the Scottish Government’s vision for how the country’s infrastructure must evolve to meet the challenges and opportunities of the next decade.

Investment will be underpinned by £30 billion capital spending over the Spending Review period to March 2030, with specific plans worth £11.1bn outlined in the Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline. Further projects will move into the Pipeline as business cases are approved.

Plans include:

• £4.1bn public investment to support delivery of 36,000 more affordable homes – with at least 70% for social rent
• targeted investment across the NHS estate, improving resilience and enabling modernisation of both property and services
• £1.2bn in renewing rail fleet and ferry vessels and associated enabling works
• investment in work to dual the A9 between Perth and Inverness
• more than £700 million in HMP Glasgow and HMP Highland to increase prison capacity and transform rehabilitation
• investment in natural infrastructure, with close to £300m in peatland restoration and woodland creation

Finance secretary Shona Robison said: “Infrastructure is essential to Scotland’s health, economy and environment. It underpins the crucial public services that people rely on every day.

“To ensure Scotland’s infrastructure remains responsive to our evolving needs we must make smart, strategic choices: renewing and adapting our asset base, investing in prevention, and leveraging private investment where appropriate.

“The First Minister has been clear about this government’s priorities – with economic growth, tackling child poverty, meeting the challenge of climate change, and investment in and reform of our public services at the heart of our drive to deliver the infrastructure Scotland needs and deserves.”

Social housing sector warns of “back‑loaded” investment

The Scottish Government said it will support the delivery of 36,000 affordable homes and its wider all-tenure ambition by investing up to £4.9bn over the next four years. Around £4.1bn of this will be public investment, with the government set to work with partners including the Scottish National Investment Bank to leverage additional private investment.

The Scottish Federation of Housing Associations (SFHA) welcomed the multi‑year commitment but cautioned that the spending profile risks slowing delivery at the very moment acceleration is needed.

SFHA chief executive, Richard Meade, said: “The Scottish Government’s draft Budget confirms a continued commitment to affordable housing, with £4.1bn in public funding for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme over four years, and this progress is appreciated.

“However, a closer look at the spending review shows that much of the increase is back-loaded towards the end of the period. Once construction costs, inflation, labour shortages and regulatory pressures are taken into account, funding in the early years of the programme appears broadly flat in real terms. This risks slowing delivery at precisely the point when we need to accelerate the building of affordable and social homes.

“We need to see an £8.2bn commitment over the course of the next Scottish Parliament, alongside a radical overhaul of the housing system, if Scotland is to build the 15,693 affordable homes it needs to respond effectively to the housing emergency. We will continue to make the case for greater investment in affordable housing in Scotland so that everyone can have a safe, warm affordable home.”

CIH Scotland director Gillian McLees said the uplift to £925.87 million in 2025/26 for the AHSP is welcome but insufficient to meet the government’s pledge of 110,000 affordable homes by 2032.

“The increase provides a commitment to building capacity within the sector and continuing to deliver homes that will help to tackle homelessness, reduce poverty and create communities where people can thrive,” she said.

“However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the Scottish Government is not on track to meet its own target of delivering 110,000 social and affordable homes by 2032. If this is to be realised, significant increases in future budgets will be required.

“CIH research, commissioned jointly with Shelter Scotland and SFHA, identifies the need to deliver 15,693 social and affordable homes each year supported by £1.64bn per year through the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. (Yesterday’s) budget, although increased, does not meet this and shows there is still some way to go to provide the social and affordable homes Scotland needs.  

“While this is the case, the continued financial commitment to the Ending Homelessness Together fund including Rapid Rehousing Transitions Funds is vital in tackling the ongoing housing emergency. We urge the Scottish Government to continue investing in homelessness services while working towards developing the detail on the new homelessness prevention duty.”

GWSF director David Bookbinder also called for realism about what can be achieved.

“The overall 14.6% increase in the 26-27 Affordable Housing Supply Programme is to be warmly welcomed in a Budget where tough decisions had to be made,” he said.

“We do, though, note that the increase in capital expenditure, which is what funds new social rented provision, is nearer to 5%. If we estimate current average grant to be around £140k, the capital budget of £762m would fund around 5,400 homes, so we’ll need to be realistic about what can be achieved against the estimates of new rented homes actually needed.

“With a multi-year programme now set out, we very much hope that momentum with the programme will steadily increase as we move away from the stop-start cycles of recent years, but ultimately that will be down to the new administration’s priorities in the years ahead.”

Home builders “frustrated” by lack of detail

The Budget’s broader housing measures, including £66m in Financial Transactions for housing and rhetoric around “new hope for young Scots”, were met with frustration from the private sector.

Homes for Scotland chief executive Jane Wood said the Budget missed an opportunity to introduce bold initiatives to stimulate construction at a time when home‑building levels are “at or near historic lows”.

“It was extremely encouraging to hear the cabinet secretary for finance talk of ‘new hope for young Scots looking for their first home’,” Ms Wood added. “The budget document itself also emphasises ‘all-tenure’ ambition and details £66m in Financial Transactions for housing. However, the lack of detail on what this will mean in practice is extremely frustrating.

“With home building levels now at or near historic lows, the only feasible way out of the housing emergency is to build significantly more homes across private and social sectors. Key to this is confidence for both new and existing investors, on which we have been working closely with the Scottish Government but I am afraid today appears to be a missed opportunity to announce the bold initiatives that we believe would significantly stimulate construction.

“Support for first time buyers (previously provided by the First Home Fund) is absolutely fundamental. It remains to be seen whether this will be forthcoming to give young people the hope the Budget statement alluded to.

“As we approach May’s election, we urge all parties to come forward with policies which deliver the homes Scotland needs.”

Timber Engineering founder Eddie Wighton said the government had “missed a significant opportunity” to prioritise housing of all tenures.

“Scotland is facing a national housing emergency, yet some local authorities still have their heads buried in the sand,” he added. “The industry is ready to mobilise, but meaningful momentum cannot be gained without government support. In some cases, this means additional funding (such as in social housing delivery), in others, it requires policy change. It’s time to pull out the defibrillator and revive affordable housing. Families of all tenures desperately require homes that are genuinely affordable.

“The government must also look more closely at the way that the rental market is managed. Small changes, including ensuring that housing benefit contributions are paid directly to landlords, would reduce the immediate risk of tenant homelessness and strain on temporary accommodation. Placing housing development on behalf of local authority onto an open tender system would also deliver better value for money to taxpayers.

“Improving the planning system would remove an enormous barrier, as would more zoning for housing in Local Development Plans. However, unless these standards are not locked in for a significant period – 10 years would be my preference – then there is little chance of increasing housing output.

“Separately, the government’s proposed Building Safety Level Bill represents a fast-approaching crisis for SMEs. Companies that have had no involvement in high-rise buildings with legacy combustible cladding issues will effectively be asked to subsidise the larger companies responsible for the debacle. When SMEs are being squeezed with employment, energy and material costs, alongside the cost of finance, regulation and compliance, this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

Lack of focus on built environment ‘disappointing’

Roger Esson MRICS, RICS regional market director – north, said: “With a challenging financial backdrop and elections coming up in May, it’s understandable that this budget is relatively light on detail; however, we welcome the move to provide business rate reliefs at this difficult time, which aligns with our manifesto calls. 

“We are committed to supporting this effort through our members’ expertise. We also welcome the publication of the long-awaited draft Infrastructure Delivery Pipeline and Infrastructure Strategy and we look forward to responding to the consultation.

“Nevertheless, the lack of focus on the built environment, particularly detail on housing delivery is disappointing, especially when considering the housing emergency. This needs to be addressed by all parties during the election campaign to ensure that communities and industry have confidence and clarity going forward.”  

Professor Norman K McLennan FRICS FCICES, RICS Scotland board chair, said: “This budget comes at a critical moment for Scotland’s built environment, particularly with the Holyrood election looming in May. With mounting pressures on housing supply, ageing assets, skills shortages and the need to accelerate the transition to net zero, decisions taken now will shape Scotland’s communities for decades to come.

“In its manifesto – Surveying Scotland – RICS is calling for a clear focus on tackling the housing emergency, driving the green economy and investing in skills and professional standards. By working in partnership with industry and aligning policy with long-term investment, the Scottish Government can ensure the built environment supports sustainable growth, resilience and national wellbeing.”

David Melhuish, director, Scottish Property Federation, said: “Today’s Scottish Budget offers some welcome specific support for retail, hospitality, and leisure ratepayers in light of this April’s business rates revaluation and provides phased increases for other ratepayers. There is also welcome stability on the rates and thresholds for the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT).

“However, for the real estate sector the challenges of development viability will remain largely untouched by today’s budget statement and without the economic uplift achieved by investment in our urban centres we remain concerned that Scotland’s growth will continue to stagnate.

“Furthermore, investors will be particularly disappointed that the Reserved Investor Fund LBTT relief has not yet been delivered, despite extensive engagement with experts seeking a level playing field with the rest of the UK.

“Though we do welcome the boost in investment for the affordable housing budget and for targeted infrastructure support for city growth projects. Overall, it will be important for the Scottish Government to work closely with UK and local government partners to maximise the benefits of regional and city growth deals.”

Tony Rosenthal, senior director, CBRE, added: “While the reduction in the Uniform Business Rate in today’s Scottish budget is a welcome step for businesses, rates in Scotland remain notably higher than those south of the border. For commercial property occupiers, this continues to be a factor when considering location decisions, particularly in highly competitive sectors where cost efficiencies are critical.

“As Scotland seeks to attract and retain investment, aligning business rates more closely with England could play a key role in maintaining competitiveness and supporting long-term growth in the commercial real estate market.”