The ECI plays a crucial role in the UK meeting its net zero ambitions, spanning sectors that focus on the construction, maintenance and decommissioning of heavy industry, including oil and gas, nuclear, power generation, renewables, chemicals, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and water treatment. 

The Engineering Construction Industry Training Board’s (ECITB) Labour Forecasting Tool (LFT) provides insights into workforce numbers across regions and sectors, predicting trends and potential future demand for workers in the industry.

The tool, which was first launched in November 2023, has been updated using findings from the ECITB 2024 Workforce Census and publicly stated timescales on 3,000 active and future ECI projects across Great Britain. 

The ECITB’s latest forecast states that the size of the ECI workforce in Scotland could grow by 3,000 by 2030, with mechanical engineers, project managers and project engineers among the roles most in demand.

It states that while the oil and gas workforce is projected to decline, sectors such as renewables, nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture & storage are set to grow.

The overall picture of future labour needs in Britain highlights that the size of the ECI workforce could total more than 135,000 workers in five years’ time to meet demand, an increase of 19% on the current number of workers in industry.

The tool previously stated that demand across industry would peak in 2028, but this has now shifted to 2030 due to delays in some projects coinciding with other planned activity, as well as a potential wave of retirements in key roles.

The revised predictions were possible thanks to a record response rate from industry employers for the latest iteration of the ECITB Workforce Census.

The ECITB Workforce Census 2024 offered a comprehensive overview of the ECI workforce in Scotland, having gathered data on more than 16,000 workers, covering distribution across sectors, demographic trends, hiring challenges and business opportunities. 

ECITB chief executive Andrew Hockey said: “A key objective of the Foundations pillar of our Leading Industry Learning strategy is to produce impactful labour market intelligence to enable data-driven decision-making.

“The significant Census response rate enabled the ECITB to provide more precise, up-to-date data for the benefit of industry. It allows us to improve the LFT to help make better predictions on future workforce trends and labour demands in Scotland.

“The updates to the LFT reinforce the scale of the challenges facing industry that were outlined in our Workforce Census Report, which revealed that 81% of ECI employers in Scotland are experiencing challenges hiring workers.

“It also highlighted that the share of workers over 60 in Scotland had increased from 8% to 16.2% since 2021.

“We recognise that addressing skills shortages in Scotland requires a collaborative, multi-agency approach that includes employers, governments, training providers and the ECITB. 

“So, we’re calling on all of industry to work together to help increase the pool of people joining the ECI, while continuing to train and upskill existing workers.

“By investing in the workforce, the industry has a fighting chance of closing the skills gap and ensuring the ECI has the skilled workforce it needs both for now and the future.”