Funded by Scottish Enterprise and Innovate UK, the research shows that as Scotland decarbonises heating and electricity, the majority of emissions from new construction will increasingly come from embodied carbon—emissions associated with materials, construction, and eventual demolition—unless urgently addressed.

The findings, launched in ABC’s white paper Balance, reveal that embodied carbon is currently unregulated and is projected to account for all emissions from new buildings by 2045. ABC warns that meaningful legislation to curb these emissions could take 20 years to materialise—unless action starts now.

The paper calls for the Scottish Government to introduce a comprehensive framework to manage embodied carbon, including enforceable limits, industry standards, and new planning policies focused on material reuse, deconstruction, and tree planting as a natural carbon offset.

“Our research has determined that 150kgCO₂e/m² across all lifecycle stages (A–D) should be the limit by 2045. Hitting this target will require a major shift in how we build,” said Jonathan McQuillan, director at ABC. “The way forward is ambitious but achievable—if we act now.”

The Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) and the Royal Incorporation of Architects in Scotland (RIAS) are backing ABC’s call for change. Both organisations stress that existing efforts to reduce operational emissions from buildings must now be matched with policies to reduce embodied carbon.

“Embodied carbon is a critical part of construction’s contribution to climate change,” said Chris Stewart, past president of RIAS. “We need a lifecycle approach to compliance, not just one focused on the moment of construction.”

RTPI president Helen Fadipe MBE echoed this sentiment, emphasising that offsetting and mitigation must be embedded in how communities are planned.

“Only through sustained, coordinated collaboration across the built environment professions can we deliver high-quality, low-carbon places,” she said.

One of the paper’s standout proposals is to offset unavoidable emissions by significantly increasing tree canopy cover in urban areas. ABC’s research suggests that the required carbon could be absorbed through strategic tree planting across Scotland’s towns and cities—using spaces that already exist between buildings.

This approach would simultaneously support goals in the National Planning Framework related to climate resilience, biodiversity, and urban greening.

To reach the 150kgCO₂e/m² target, ABC lays out a roadmap of nine key legislative changes, including:

1. Standardised procedures for measuring embodied carbon
2. A legally enforceable carbon limit for new buildings by 2045
3. Creation of a deconstruction industry
4. A national materials mining and reuse database
5. Mandated material reuse requirements
6. Uniform methods for assessing carbon sequestration
7. Tree management plans by local authorities using GIS tools
8. Stronger protections for existing trees
9. Requirements for 2040 local development plans to demonstrate net-zero strategies using balance-based metrics

Together, these reforms would pave the way for a circular construction industry that balances carbon emissions with sequestration, reshaping how buildings are designed, built, and decommissioned.

“Carbon balance is achievable in Scotland,” said McQuillan. “But with such wide-reaching reforms needed, we must begin this transformation now to be ready in 20 years.”