Three consecutive quarters of survey data now confirm that the plumbing and heating profession is facing a deepening skills crisis, with nearly 70% of businesses reporting low availability of skilled professionals and fewer than one in four planning to recruit apprentices.

The Q1 2025 survey paints a stark picture of a profession under pressure. While day-to-day trading conditions remain stable, confidence in the UK economy is slipping and caution is rising, driven by increasing material and national insurance costs, as well as an under-replenished workforce.

Fiona Hodgson, chief executive of SNIPEF, said: “We are now seeing the cumulative impact of government inaction, with funding support frozen for more than eight years. Our members continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience amid ongoing global economic uncertainty, but resilience alone cannot replace the need for a skilled and sustainable workforce.

“Our employers have continued to sound the alarm: they cannot find the people they need, and too few have the resources to train the next generation. Without urgent government action, our capacity to deliver on housing, infrastructure and net zero targets will begin to manifest in the next two to three years.”

According to the latest State of Trade report:

• 69% of firms report low availability of skilled plumbing and heating professionals - the highest level recorded to date
• Just 22% of businesses are likely to recruit an apprentice in the next six months
• Only 21% say they are likely to increase staff levels, with many citing cost pressures
• Confidence in the UK economy remains fragile, with 47% of respondents expressing pessimism about the country’s economic outlook over the next 12 months.

The Federation warns that these findings reveal a deeper systemic issue: the chronic underfunding of further education and apprenticeships. Addressing this will require targeted, employer-focused investment in skills development and workforce growth.

“Policymakers continue to talk about the value of apprenticeships and the green transition, yet the very trades needed to deliver them are being starved of support,” Hodgson added.

“If we are serious about installing low-carbon heating systems and driving social and economic mobility, we need thousands more trained professionals. That starts with investing in apprenticeships now, not two or three years down the line.”

SNIPEF is also calling for:

• Increased funding for employer training incentives
• An immediate review of vocational education and SME training support
• Better alignment between skills policy and Scotland’s decarbonisation targets

The Q1 2025 State of Trade survey was conducted between 24 and 31 March 2025, with responses gathered from over 700 plumbing and heating businesses and affiliated organisations across Scotland and Northern Ireland.