In its first tailored advice to the Scottish Government on carbon budgeting, the CCC recommends the adoption of four five-year carbon budgets, calling for steep emissions reductions relative to 1990 levels:

• 57% reduction by 2030
• 69% by 2035
• 80% by 2040
• 94% by 2045

These targets include emissions from international aviation and shipping. As of 2022, Scotland had achieved a 50% reduction in emissions, but the CCC emphasises that more ambitious and sustained action is urgently required to meet these new benchmarks.

Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, said: “Scotland’s new system of carbon budgets will help guide the action we need to get to Net Zero by 2045… But we do need to see action now.”

The CCC identifies electrification, particularly through heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs), as the central pillar of Scotland’s low-carbon transition. Nearly half of the emissions reductions in the CCC’s pathway come from switching to clean, electric technologies.

• Electric Vehicles: By 2035, 60% of Scotland’s cars and vans are expected to be fully electric, rising to 94% by 2045.
• Low-Carbon Heat: 40% of existing homes will have low-carbon electric heating by 2035, primarily through heat pumps. By 2045, this figure rises to 92%, with full coverage by 2050.
• Renewable Energy: Scotland’s renewable energy capacity is set to more than triple—from 15 GW in 2023 to 49 GW by 2035 and 66 GW by 2045—meeting almost all domestic electricity demand.

The CCC estimates the cost of delivering these carbon budgets at just 0.4% of Scotland’s GDP per year, with substantial economic upsides. These include lower household energy bills through more efficient electric systems; reduced air pollution; job creation in clean energy and green infrastructure as well as greater energy security and resilience.

The CCC lays out 18 key recommendations for immediate action. Top priorities include:

• Supporting Low-Carbon Heating: Urgent replacement of abandoned proposals from the Heat in Buildings Bill is needed to drive adoption of low-carbon heating in privately owned homes, especially in tenements.
• Boosting Energy Efficiency: The Scottish Government must introduce minimum energy efficiency standards and support home insulation, with a focus on low-income households.
• Expanding EV Infrastructure: Investment in public charging points and public transport is vital to support the EV rollout and promote sustainable travel.
• Greener Agriculture and Land Use: Financial support and markets for sustainable farming, forestry, and peatland restoration must be established.
• Fair Transition Planning: Scotland needs inclusive plans to ensure that workers and communities benefit from the green transition, especially in industrial hubs like Grangemouth.
• Cheaper Electricity: The UK Government is urged to remove levies from electricity bills to accelerate the switch to electric heating and transport, with Scottish Government backing.

Professor Lori McElroy, chair of the Existing Homes Alliance, welcomed the CCC’s focus on low-carbon homes but called for a robust delivery plan: “With leadership and the right framework of regulation and support, Scotland can lead the way… but the time for decisive action is now.”

The Just Transition Commission co-chairs, Prof. Dave Reay and Satwat Rehman, stressed the need for practical delivery: “It’s now time to get into delivery mode so that people everywhere in Scotland can take pride in our contribution to tackling the climate crisis.”

Stefanie O’Gorman, director of Sustainable Economics at Ramboll, issued a stark warning about the implementation gap: “Vital policies have been scrapped or watered down, progress has stalled, and the gap between ambition and reality is widening… This is not a burden – it’s an opportunity.”